smisachu
07-30 11:47 AM
You can trade commodities like stocks by taking a directional bet on long term price movement. But this is what you need to consider. Stocks always trade in Spot. If you buy MSFT you own shares of Microsoft today. Although single stock futures (SSF) are available now we will not look at derivatives right now.
Commodities are traded as futures. You can buy Soy futures today for December delivery or lean hogs for dec 2010 delivery.
Under conditions of No-Arbitrage the price of the future will be the price of the spot plus storage and delivery costs. If for example 3 month LSC (Light Sweet crude) is trading on NYMEX at $60; the cost of storage and delivery is say $20 for 3 months. Then 6 month LSC should be trading at $80. But if you look at the contract it might be trading at $55.
The reason being fundamentals. The peak driving season or the hurricane season is over and heating oil season is not yet on us or by looking at weather derivatives traders are factoring in milder winter. The leader of Iran has declared he will step down from office and retire to Hawaii, the rebels in Nigeria have turned themselves in and joined a church missionary..stuff like that.
So you might believe these fundamental assumptions or you might do your own research and say that the traders are wrong and they are discounting critical factors and the price should be more. So you can go long the future and hope for an increase in price and sell the future before delivery for a profit. This is the expensive route but you will never be wiped out for sure. Price of crude may drop but will never go to zero.
Or you trade options on the futures, for example:
Borrow money (leverage) buy the call; short delta units of the future contract and invest the proceeds at the risk free rate.
If you are correct the call will end up in the money, the shorted futures will loose value but since it is “delta” units it is only a portion of the position and the invested money will earn you the risk free rate. So you make some money on the call and loose some on the hedge and net you will profit. (Hopefully to cover the transaction costs and taxes)
If you are wrong (price falls) your call will expire worth less so you are wiped out there, your short will increase in value and you will still earn the risk free rate. So although net you will loose money it will not be as much as a naked call because of delta hedging.
This is explained in very very simple terms. Each transaction step will indicate modeling prices to know if the future is priced correctly, if the option is priced correctly and if the leverage you are getting is correct. Plus modeling future price movements and expected rate of returns and the most primary thing in any transaction the “Alpha”. Source of alpha should be very clearly defined. Let me go a bit deep and include some simple math:
E[R] = Alpha + betaR + epsalon
Where E[R] is the expected return-(see statists for more on expectation functions.)
alphais the excess return
betaR is market return or what the price of the commodity does in the duration chosen. (Market betais 1)
epsalonis error term or un explained return.
(Sorry the greek symbols did not display so I wrote words)
This is a kindergarten model of modeling your alpha. As there are many variables you will use a multi variant model to figure out return. Plus as I said in my previous post you have to model jumps. Jumps are spikes of very short duration which will only be seen in a log normal price distribution. A Gaussian distribution might not be changed much because of a spike of small duration. For example if you are trading electricity and the temperature in NJ hits 110 degrees, there is going to be a spike on that day for electricity prices but this will fall as soon as temperature falls.
And the core issue of all is you need to have access to products as indicated by puddonhead plus money and leverage capacity and risk bearing capacity. As you see this is not for the faint of heart or for some one to do part time. If you are really sophisticated and can do this with good resources, fine or else my advice is stick to stocks or stock derivatives. Hedge funds have teams of quants and super computers sitting and doing this every day. They will vacuum out even the slightest of alpha out there; they will simply take your money if you enter into a wrong trade. If someone is a quant and does this for a living then if his contract allows it or if his licensing allows it legally he can do it on the side but apart from it definitely not something the retail investor should indulge in. Just invest in some ETF like GLD or USO or some commodity mutual funds at the max.
Best of luck!!
Commodities are traded as futures. You can buy Soy futures today for December delivery or lean hogs for dec 2010 delivery.
Under conditions of No-Arbitrage the price of the future will be the price of the spot plus storage and delivery costs. If for example 3 month LSC (Light Sweet crude) is trading on NYMEX at $60; the cost of storage and delivery is say $20 for 3 months. Then 6 month LSC should be trading at $80. But if you look at the contract it might be trading at $55.
The reason being fundamentals. The peak driving season or the hurricane season is over and heating oil season is not yet on us or by looking at weather derivatives traders are factoring in milder winter. The leader of Iran has declared he will step down from office and retire to Hawaii, the rebels in Nigeria have turned themselves in and joined a church missionary..stuff like that.
So you might believe these fundamental assumptions or you might do your own research and say that the traders are wrong and they are discounting critical factors and the price should be more. So you can go long the future and hope for an increase in price and sell the future before delivery for a profit. This is the expensive route but you will never be wiped out for sure. Price of crude may drop but will never go to zero.
Or you trade options on the futures, for example:
Borrow money (leverage) buy the call; short delta units of the future contract and invest the proceeds at the risk free rate.
If you are correct the call will end up in the money, the shorted futures will loose value but since it is “delta” units it is only a portion of the position and the invested money will earn you the risk free rate. So you make some money on the call and loose some on the hedge and net you will profit. (Hopefully to cover the transaction costs and taxes)
If you are wrong (price falls) your call will expire worth less so you are wiped out there, your short will increase in value and you will still earn the risk free rate. So although net you will loose money it will not be as much as a naked call because of delta hedging.
This is explained in very very simple terms. Each transaction step will indicate modeling prices to know if the future is priced correctly, if the option is priced correctly and if the leverage you are getting is correct. Plus modeling future price movements and expected rate of returns and the most primary thing in any transaction the “Alpha”. Source of alpha should be very clearly defined. Let me go a bit deep and include some simple math:
E[R] = Alpha + betaR + epsalon
Where E[R] is the expected return-(see statists for more on expectation functions.)
alphais the excess return
betaR is market return or what the price of the commodity does in the duration chosen. (Market betais 1)
epsalonis error term or un explained return.
(Sorry the greek symbols did not display so I wrote words)
This is a kindergarten model of modeling your alpha. As there are many variables you will use a multi variant model to figure out return. Plus as I said in my previous post you have to model jumps. Jumps are spikes of very short duration which will only be seen in a log normal price distribution. A Gaussian distribution might not be changed much because of a spike of small duration. For example if you are trading electricity and the temperature in NJ hits 110 degrees, there is going to be a spike on that day for electricity prices but this will fall as soon as temperature falls.
And the core issue of all is you need to have access to products as indicated by puddonhead plus money and leverage capacity and risk bearing capacity. As you see this is not for the faint of heart or for some one to do part time. If you are really sophisticated and can do this with good resources, fine or else my advice is stick to stocks or stock derivatives. Hedge funds have teams of quants and super computers sitting and doing this every day. They will vacuum out even the slightest of alpha out there; they will simply take your money if you enter into a wrong trade. If someone is a quant and does this for a living then if his contract allows it or if his licensing allows it legally he can do it on the side but apart from it definitely not something the retail investor should indulge in. Just invest in some ETF like GLD or USO or some commodity mutual funds at the max.
Best of luck!!
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Bradman
11-09 09:54 AM
I highly doubt that the White called Mr. Bradman abou this name check. white house has other things to worry about that then simply getting ones name check cleared. White has nothing to do with name checks. If it did, my mothers case would have been cleard a long time ago. She is stuck for the past 3 years. She is over 60. i contacted the white house last year. Not even a Thanks for writing form them.
So if it is true, then Bradman congrats, but if you are just pulling our leg, then not a good thing.
What you think and suggest is your problem. I know what all i had go through to be where I am today. I did a receive a call on either occasion from the Presidents office. As a matter of fact when I wrote to the FL and the Senators office then too I received calls.
Keep you subject very precise and on the top of envelop remember to mention "Immigration Assistance". Please use ordinary mail 41 cents stamp and wait and watch.
All the best !!!!
So if it is true, then Bradman congrats, but if you are just pulling our leg, then not a good thing.
What you think and suggest is your problem. I know what all i had go through to be where I am today. I did a receive a call on either occasion from the Presidents office. As a matter of fact when I wrote to the FL and the Senators office then too I received calls.
Keep you subject very precise and on the top of envelop remember to mention "Immigration Assistance". Please use ordinary mail 41 cents stamp and wait and watch.
All the best !!!!
Smuragalla
07-20 07:13 PM
Hey SmartBoy,
Could you please update the status of your h1b reopen case, I am in the same stage, but I am staying with current employer no new h1b transfer.
would really appreciate if you can update me, the Final status.
Thank You.
Could you please update the status of your h1b reopen case, I am in the same stage, but I am staying with current employer no new h1b transfer.
would really appreciate if you can update me, the Final status.
Thank You.
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Humhongekamyab
07-02 02:44 PM
I have taken my Ex - employer to DOL and USCIS and I was successful getting my money back.
If you go with lawsuit then it becomes partially a Civil case rather than criminal offense.
If any one needs info how to proceed send me a PM
Good job buddy.
This is a good option-to sue your employer but if you want a free attorney then let DOL W&H division do that job for you. Their officers will audit the employer and will check their records for the last 5 years and will also fine them.
If you go with lawsuit then it becomes partially a Civil case rather than criminal offense.
If any one needs info how to proceed send me a PM
Good job buddy.
This is a good option-to sue your employer but if you want a free attorney then let DOL W&H division do that job for you. Their officers will audit the employer and will check their records for the last 5 years and will also fine them.
more...
bugsbunny
04-17 03:04 PM
Looks like you are one of the beneficiaries of H1 who does not have good education. You can console yourself with the word 'skill' and all that computer jargon The bottomline is H1B visa is for professionals. However, in the past few years, Indian IT bodyshops have sent underskilled computer operators to the US to enhance their operating margins. This will come to end very soon and has to come to an end very soon. I think the process has already begun. Number of H1b visas rejected at Indian bodyshops have gone up. Operating margins at Infosys has shrunk significantly. Infosys and other bodyshops have seen stock price plummet drastically.
Companies such as Congizant have stopped bringing people from India on H1. Rather they are trying to hire people in the US who already have H1B visas. The illegals who have gotton their H1B from shady consultants in NJ, CA and elsewhere. Congizant is doing community service by legalizing illegals. The people who sat on the bench during recession while holding their H1B visas without a paycheck. Sorry with paycheck which needs to be refunded to the employer by personal check. Stop the fraud, please stop the fraud.
Again you have provided no arguments to support why you believe IGNOU or Univ or Phoenix are fraudulent. Just because you believe they are...does not automatically make them so. Please provide proper reasoning.
Instead you jumped to a different topic of IT bodyshops which is unrelated to the two people who asked if they qualify for EB2
Companies such as Congizant have stopped bringing people from India on H1. Rather they are trying to hire people in the US who already have H1B visas. The illegals who have gotton their H1B from shady consultants in NJ, CA and elsewhere. Congizant is doing community service by legalizing illegals. The people who sat on the bench during recession while holding their H1B visas without a paycheck. Sorry with paycheck which needs to be refunded to the employer by personal check. Stop the fraud, please stop the fraud.
Again you have provided no arguments to support why you believe IGNOU or Univ or Phoenix are fraudulent. Just because you believe they are...does not automatically make them so. Please provide proper reasoning.
Instead you jumped to a different topic of IT bodyshops which is unrelated to the two people who asked if they qualify for EB2
Waitnwait
12-02 12:13 PM
Since IV has contact e-mails for all its members, it can also send periodic e-mails on its activities, funding drives, recent achievements and ask for the members to contibute. This will be helpful for those who dont visit the site very often. For Example, recent update given by pappu inspired me to sign up for monthly contribution. But that would happen only if i visited the site very often. I would have missed it if i am not a regular visitor to the site.
more...
Powersa
07-17 09:33 PM
Thanks all. I read the petition and I think it is great work. Yes, we need to send messages like this as a group.
Allow me to quote from the petition:
"It is required by law to pay an H1-B a minimum of $40000. "
I'm not challenging anything here, but can someone please point to the source of this? Is this Federal?
Again, I'm not challenging this. I just would appreciate some pointers so that I can learn more.
Thanks again.
Allow me to quote from the petition:
"It is required by law to pay an H1-B a minimum of $40000. "
I'm not challenging anything here, but can someone please point to the source of this? Is this Federal?
Again, I'm not challenging this. I just would appreciate some pointers so that I can learn more.
Thanks again.
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minimalist
10-03 03:45 PM
:eek:
This post molests the definition of argument/debate, medical science and logic in general. Actually, it has nothing to do with the topic at hand.
Internet hates you for this post.
on how you intentionally lied to get into US?
This post molests the definition of argument/debate, medical science and logic in general. Actually, it has nothing to do with the topic at hand.
Internet hates you for this post.
on how you intentionally lied to get into US?
more...
prashanthg
03-13 11:13 AM
There are people from EB3 with PDs in late 2001 and 2002 and 2003 who were not able to file I-485 due to the delay at BEC. These numbers excludes them I wonder how many EB3-I applications that would be!
I am one of those unlucky few...
I am one of those unlucky few...
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fasterthanlight�
06-09 03:56 PM
the chavPod!
Haha that's sick!
Haha that's sick!
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pmb76
07-14 09:03 PM
I disagree. His show is widely watched, so this is one more avenue where a small effort can have disproportionate results.
akred, Thank you for helping to promote this petition. I think that when we have enough signatures we must also release this letter in parallel to media outlets while we send it to CNN execs. This will make the folks at CNN more answerable to this petition. However in order to do this we require the backing of IV core and utilize their contacts with the media. An individual like you and me can only go so far. Backing of IV core will provide us with maximum traction to evince response from CNN.
akred, Thank you for helping to promote this petition. I think that when we have enough signatures we must also release this letter in parallel to media outlets while we send it to CNN execs. This will make the folks at CNN more answerable to this petition. However in order to do this we require the backing of IV core and utilize their contacts with the media. An individual like you and me can only go so far. Backing of IV core will provide us with maximum traction to evince response from CNN.
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admin
04-10 08:16 AM
It looks excellent response.
Now let us take third round. Every one convice atleast one person for contribution and post the experience here.
Request to administrator to post latest contribution figure.
Thanks,
khodalmd,
We have updated the contributions page -
http://immigrationvoice.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=26&Itemid=44#CollectionsSoFar
We have collected a little over $80,000 so far. We still have a long way to go to reach our target of $150,000. The more the money that all of our members contribute, more the amount of hours the lobbyist will be able to expend on our cause. This is really crunch time for us and we urge all members to contribute and also convince their friends and relatives also to contribute.
Now let us take third round. Every one convice atleast one person for contribution and post the experience here.
Request to administrator to post latest contribution figure.
Thanks,
khodalmd,
We have updated the contributions page -
http://immigrationvoice.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=26&Itemid=44#CollectionsSoFar
We have collected a little over $80,000 so far. We still have a long way to go to reach our target of $150,000. The more the money that all of our members contribute, more the amount of hours the lobbyist will be able to expend on our cause. This is really crunch time for us and we urge all members to contribute and also convince their friends and relatives also to contribute.
more...
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unchew
06-04 07:14 PM
I'm going to do one after I finish with my GCSE studying!
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chanduv23
11-01 07:19 PM
Well reverse brain drain is happening at an entry level where companies are unable to reqruit talented workers straight out from schools.
more...
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seeking_GC
05-25 02:04 PM
I think we need to study the bill in detail before we jump to any conclusions.
From reading the summary in the AILA website, specifically the below :
The legislation would reinforce our commitment to families and reduce current wait times in the family immigration system by:
�Recapturing an estimated 400,000 family-sponsored and employment-based visas that went unused between 1992 and 2007.
Atleast to me it seems like the bill plans on using all the unused visas from the past years and apply that towards the family quota. Not sure if that would help the EB cause.
Inputs anyone?
From reading the summary in the AILA website, specifically the below :
The legislation would reinforce our commitment to families and reduce current wait times in the family immigration system by:
�Recapturing an estimated 400,000 family-sponsored and employment-based visas that went unused between 1992 and 2007.
Atleast to me it seems like the bill plans on using all the unused visas from the past years and apply that towards the family quota. Not sure if that would help the EB cause.
Inputs anyone?
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virtual55
04-07 11:21 AM
Contributed my 150 bucks right now towards 150K
PAYPAL Receipt ID for your records: 5115-4160-0151-6144
PAYPAL Receipt ID for your records: 5115-4160-0151-6144
more...
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bskrishna
06-03 11:11 AM
http://ktar.com/?nid=6&sid=855283
Armed with bipartisan support, an Arizona congressman is moving ahead with legislation that could solve a series of illegal immigration issues.
Rep. Raul Grijalva said the measures will be introduced soon and would provide expedited citizenship for active duty military members who are not U.S. citizens, and permanent resident status for their families.
House Resolution 6020 would help some of the more than 45,000 noncitizens serving in the U.S. military as of March 2007, said Grijalva, a southern Arizona Democrat.
``Some families fear immediate deportation if their noncitizen soldier is killed on active duty,'' he said.
The bill would permit family members of such soldiers to become lawful permanent residents.
A second bill calls for basic health care for detained immigrants.
House Resolution 5950 would set medical care standards for immigrant detainees.
The secretary of the U.S. Department of Health Services would be required to establish procedures for the timely and effective delivery of health care to detainees and to report the deaths of detainees to the agency and Congress. It would require any necessary medications be provided upon detention.
Grijalva may not he done yet. The congressman said he is considering co-sponsoring two more immigration bills that have bipartisan support.
One eliminates the per country limits on foreign workers who can obtain employment-based visas to work in the United States.
The second would allow about 12,000 masters or doctorate-level graduates of U.S. colleges each year who are noncitizens to obtain green cards to work in science, technology, engineering and math.
Armed with bipartisan support, an Arizona congressman is moving ahead with legislation that could solve a series of illegal immigration issues.
Rep. Raul Grijalva said the measures will be introduced soon and would provide expedited citizenship for active duty military members who are not U.S. citizens, and permanent resident status for their families.
House Resolution 6020 would help some of the more than 45,000 noncitizens serving in the U.S. military as of March 2007, said Grijalva, a southern Arizona Democrat.
``Some families fear immediate deportation if their noncitizen soldier is killed on active duty,'' he said.
The bill would permit family members of such soldiers to become lawful permanent residents.
A second bill calls for basic health care for detained immigrants.
House Resolution 5950 would set medical care standards for immigrant detainees.
The secretary of the U.S. Department of Health Services would be required to establish procedures for the timely and effective delivery of health care to detainees and to report the deaths of detainees to the agency and Congress. It would require any necessary medications be provided upon detention.
Grijalva may not he done yet. The congressman said he is considering co-sponsoring two more immigration bills that have bipartisan support.
One eliminates the per country limits on foreign workers who can obtain employment-based visas to work in the United States.
The second would allow about 12,000 masters or doctorate-level graduates of U.S. colleges each year who are noncitizens to obtain green cards to work in science, technology, engineering and math.
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sanju
03-11 11:38 AM
I repeat my request to admins. BAN sanju. He is a menace to this forum. I would like to ask the admins, why is there a favourable bias towards him? Anyother person would have been banned a long time ago. Look at all his previous posts.
oh ya, I remember you from the days of mumbai attack when you were supporting the terrorist and acting like their spokesperson, right?
.
oh ya, I remember you from the days of mumbai attack when you were supporting the terrorist and acting like their spokesperson, right?
.
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desi485
02-13 03:10 PM
Hello:
I am working on EAD for company B. Company B filed H1 transfer for me before May 2007. I heard that You can transfer you H1 and EAD both with new company but I did not aware about this rule, I started working on EAD. Is it possible to go back on H1 which company B filed? I have not yet used AP for travelling abroad.
Regards,
AFAIK, once you work on EAD, you can not be back on H1B. Please check this with your lawyer.
However what I do not know, and what my lawyer also could not answer till this point is, if after travelling abroad using AP, can one transfer same H1 to a new employer? I know it is possible to continue working on H1 with the same employer. But what if one need H1 transfer?
I am working on EAD for company B. Company B filed H1 transfer for me before May 2007. I heard that You can transfer you H1 and EAD both with new company but I did not aware about this rule, I started working on EAD. Is it possible to go back on H1 which company B filed? I have not yet used AP for travelling abroad.
Regards,
AFAIK, once you work on EAD, you can not be back on H1B. Please check this with your lawyer.
However what I do not know, and what my lawyer also could not answer till this point is, if after travelling abroad using AP, can one transfer same H1 to a new employer? I know it is possible to continue working on H1 with the same employer. But what if one need H1 transfer?
sbindval
07-19 02:36 PM
Aman,
You are an inspiration to all of us in the IV community.
You are selfless and humble and these are amongst the most noble qualities a leader can have.
Thanks!
-S
You are an inspiration to all of us in the IV community.
You are selfless and humble and these are amongst the most noble qualities a leader can have.
Thanks!
-S
i4u
11-19 08:47 AM
Anybody who has had a parent with diabetes and taken insurance? If there were any problems, did the insurance pay the costs? If possible can you also mention what problems came up during the stay.
Thanks.
Thanks.
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